Munguva pfupi yapfuura, zvigadzirwa zvakawanda zvemakemikari muChina zvakasangana nekuwedzera kwekuwedzera, uye zvimwe zvigadzirwa zviri kuwedzera pamusoro pe10%.Uku kururamisa kwekutsiva mushure mekuwedzera kuderera kwerinenge gore mukutanga, uye haina kugadzirisa maitiro ese ekuderera kwemusika.Mune ramangwana, musika wechigadzirwa chemakemikari weChinese ucharamba usina simba kwenguva yakareba.
Octanol inoshandisa acrylic acid uye synthesis gasi semidziyo yakabikwa, vanadium secatalyst kugadzira yakasanganiswa butyraldehyde, kuburikidza neiyo n-butyraldehyde neIsobutyraldehyde inonatswa kuti iwane n-butyraldehyde uye isobutyraldehyde, uye ipapo chigadzirwa che octanol chinowanikwa kuburikidza ne shrinkage hydrogenation, rectification. nemamwe maitiro.Kudzika kwemvura kunonyanya kushandiswa mumunda weplasticizers, zvakadai se dioctyl terephthalate, dioctyl Phthalic acid, isooctyl acrylate, etc. TOTM / DOA nemimwe minda.
Musika weChinese une mwero wepamusoro wekutarisa kune octanol.Kune rimwe divi, kugadzirwa kweoctanol kunoperekedzwa nekugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvakaita sebutanol, inova yenhevedzano yezvigadzirwa uye ine musika wakakura mhedzisiro;Kune rumwe rutivi, sechigadzirwa chakakosha cheplasticizers, ine simba rakananga pamusika wepasi pepurasitiki wevatengi.
Mugore rapfuura, musika weChinese octanol wakasangana nemitengo yakakosha, kubva pa8650 yuan/ton kusvika 10750 yuan/ton, ine huwandu hwe24.3%.Musi waChikumi 9, 2023, mutengo wakaderera waive 8650 yuan/ton, uye mutengo wepamusoro waive 10750 yuan/ton musi wa3 Kukadzi 2023.
Mugore rapfuura, mutengo wemusika weoctanol wakachinja zvakanyanya, asi iyo yakakura amplitude inongova 24%, iyo yakaderera zvakanyanya kupfuura kuderera kwemusika mukuru.Mukuwedzera, mutengo wepakati mugore rapfuura waiva 9500 yuan / ton, uye iye zvino misika yakapfuura mutengo wepakati, zvichiratidza kuti kushanda kwese kwemusika kwakasimba kudarika chiyero chepakati mugore rapfuura.
Mufananidzo 1: Mutengo Wemusika weOctanol muChina muGore Rapera (Uniti: RMB/ton)

Zvichakadaro, nekuda kwemutengo wakasimba wemusika weoctanol, iyo yakazara purofiti yekugadzira octanol inovimbiswa kuve padanho repamusoro.Zvinoenderana nemutengo weformula yepropylene, musika weChinese octanol wakachengeta mubairo wakakwira mugore rapfuura.Avhareji purofiti muganho weChinese octanol musika indasitiri i29%, iine yakakwira purofiti margin inosvika makumi mana muzana uye yakaderera purofiti muganho we17%, kubva Kurume 2022 kusvika June 2023.
Zvinogona kuoneka kuti kunyangwe mitengo yemusika yadzikira, kugadzirwa kweoctanol kuchiri padanho repamusoro.Kuenzaniswa nezvimwe zvigadzirwa, iyo purofiti level yekugadzirwa kweoctanol muChina yakakwira kupfuura avhareji yeavhareji yezvigadzirwa zvemakemikari akawanda.
Mufananidzo 2: Kuchinja kwePurofiti yeOctanol kuChina Kwegore Rapfuura (Uniti: RMB/ton)

Zvikonzero zveiyo inogara yakakwira mwero weiyo octanol yekugadzira purofiti ndeiyi inotevera:
Chekutanga, kudzikira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakakura zvakanyanya kupfuura iyo yeoctanol.Zvinoenderana nenhamba, propylene muChina yakadzikira ne14.9% kubva Gumiguru 2022 kusvika June 2023, nepo octanol mitengo yakawedzera ne0.08%.Naizvozvo, kudzikira kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa zvakakonzera kuwedzera purofiti yekugadzira yeoctanol, chiri zvakare chikonzero chakakosha chekuona kuti octanol purofiti inoramba yakakwira.
Kubva 2009 kusvika 2023, kuderera kwemutengo wepropylene uye octanol muChina kwakaratidza maitiro anowirirana, asi musika weoctanol waive neamplitude yakakura uye kushata kwemusika wepropylene kwaive kwakachengetedzeka.Zvinoenderana nekuyedzwa kweiyo data, dhigirii rakakodzera rekushanduka kwemitengo mumisika yepropylene uye octanol ndeye 68.8%, uye pane kumwe kuwirirana pakati pezviviri, asi kuwirirana hakuna simba.
Kubva pamufananidzo uri pazasi, zvinogona kuoneka kuti kubva muna Ndira 2009 kusvika Zvita 2019, maitiro ekuchinja uye amplitude yepropylene uye octanol zvaienderana.Kubva pane data yakakodzera panguva ino, kuwirirana pakati pezviviri izvi kwakapoteredza 86%, zvichiratidza kuwirirana kwakasimba.Asi kubva muna 2020, octanol yakawedzera zvakanyanya, iyo yakasiyana zvakanyanya neiyo fluctuation maitiro epropylene, chiri zvakare chikonzero chikuru chekudzikira kwekukodzera pakati pezviviri.
Kubva 2009 kusvika Chikumi 2023, mutengo weoctanol uye propylene muChina wakachinja (chikamu: RMB/ton)

Kechipiri, mumakore achangopfuura, hutsva hwekugadzira mumusika weoctanol muChina hwave hushoma.Zvinoenderana nedata rakakodzera, kubvira 2017, pakange pasina michina mitsva yeoctanol muChina, uye huwandu hwese hwekugadzira hwakaramba hwakagadzikana.Kune rimwe divi, kuwedzera kweiyo octanol chiyero kunoda kutora chikamu muKugadzira gasi, iyo inodzikamisa mazhinji mabhizinesi matsva.Kune rimwe divi, kukura zvishoma nezvishoma kwemisika yevatengi yakadzika kwakonzera kuti chikamu chemusika weoctanol risafambiswe nezvinodiwa.
Pafungidziro yekuti huwandu hweChina hwekugadzira octanol hauwedzere, kuwanikwa uye kudiwa kwemhepo mumusika weoctanol kwadzikira, uye kupokana kwemusika hakuna mukurumbira, izvo zvinotsigirawo purofiti yekugadzira yemusika weoctanol.
Mutengo wemusika weoctanol kubva muna 2009 kusvika parizvino wachinja kubva pa4956 yuan/ton kusvika pa17855 yuan/ton, paine kushanduka kukuru, izvo zvinoratidzawo kusavimbika kukuru kwemitengo yemusika weoctanol.Kubva 2009 kusvika Chikumi 2023, avhareji mutengo weoctanol mumusika weChinese wakabva pa9300 yuan/ton kusvika pa9800 yuan/ton.Kubuda kwemapoinzi akati wandei munguva yakapfuura kunoratidzawo rutsigiro kana kuramba kweavhareji yemitengo yeoctanol kushanduka kwemusika.
Pakazosvika Chikumi 2023, avhareji mutengo wemusika weoctanol muChina waive 9300 yuan patani, izvo zviri mukati meavhareji yemutengo wemusika wemakore gumi nematatu apfuura.Nhoroondo yakaderera pamutengo i5534 yuan/ton, uye inflection point i9262 yuan/ton.Izvi zvinoreva kuti, kana mutengo wemusika weoctanol ukaramba uchiderera, iyo yakaderera inogona kunge iri nhanho yekutsigira iyi yakaderera.Nekudzokororwa uye kukwira kwemitengo, mutengo wayo wekare weavhareji we9800 yuan/tani inogona kuve nhanho yekupikisa pakuwedzera kwemutengo.
Kubva 2009 kusvika 2023, mutengo weoctanol muChina wakachinja (chikamu: RMB/ton)


Muna 2023, China ichawedzera seti nyowani yemidziyo yeoctanol, iyo ichatyora rekodhi yekusava nemidziyo mitsva yeoctanol mumakore mashoma apfuura uye inotarisirwa kuwedzera mhepo isina kunaka mumusika weoctanol.Uyezve, mukutarisira kwekushaya simba kwenguva refu mumusika wemakemikari, zvinotarisirwa kuti mitengo ye octanol muChina icharamba isina simba kwenguva yakareba, iyo inogona kuisa imwe dzvinyiriro pane purofiti pamwero wepamusoro.