MunaGunyana 2023, zvichitungamirwa nekukwira kwemitengo yemafuta asina kuchena uye mutengo wakasimba wedivi, mutengo wemusika we phenol wakakwira zvakanyanya.Pasinei nekuwedzera kwemutengo, kudiwa kwepasi hakuna kuwedzera synchronously, izvo zvingave zvine chimwe chinodzivisa pamusika.Zvisinei, misika inoramba iine tariro pamusoro pemangwana emangwana e phenol, achitenda kuti kushanduka kwenguva pfupi hakuzoshanduri kukwira kwepamusoro.
Chinyorwa ichi chichaongorora zvichangobva kuitika mumusika uyu, kusanganisira mafambiro emitengo, mamiriro ekutengeserana, kugovera uye mamiriro ekuda, uye tarisiro yeramangwana.
1.Phenol mitengo yakarova hutsva hutsva
Kubva munaGunyana 11, 2023, mutengo wemusika wephenol wasvika 9335 yuan patani, kuwedzera kwe5.35% zvichienzaniswa nezuva rekushanda rapfuura, uye mutengo wemusika wasvika pakakwirira patsva gore razvino.Iyi yekumusoro maitiro yakwezva kutarisisa kwakapararira sezvo mitengo yemusika yadzokera kumazinga ari pamusoro peavhareji yenguva imwe chete kubva 2018 kusvika 2022.

2.Kutsigira kwakasimba padivi remutengo
Kuwedzera kwemutengo mumusika we phenol kunonzi kune akawanda zvinhu.Chekutanga, kuenderera mberi kwekukwira kwemitengo yemafuta asina kuchena kunopa tsigiro yemutengo wemusika webenzene wepamusoro, sezvo kugadzirwa kwephenol kwakabatana zvakanyanya nemitengo yemafuta asina kuchena.Mutengo wepamusoro unopa kutungamira kwakasimba pamusika we phenol, uye kukwira kwakasimba kwemitengo ndicho chinhu chakakosha chekutyaira kwekuwedzera kwemitengo.
Iyo yakasimba mutengo wedivi yakasimudza mutengo wemusika we phenol.Fekitari yephenol mudunhu reShandong ndiyo yekutanga kuzivisa kuwedzera kwemutengo we200 yuan/ton, nemutengo wefekitori we9200 yuan/ton (kusanganisira mutero).Tichitevera zvakanyanya, vabati vekutakura zvinhu vekuEast China vakakwidzawo mutengo unobuda kusvika pa9300-9350 yuan/ton (kusanganisira mutero).Masikati, East China Petrochemical Company yakazivisa zvakare kuwedzera kwe400 yuan/tani mumutengo wezita, nepo fekitori mutengo unoramba uri pa9200 yuan/ton (kusanganisira mutero).Pasinei nekuwedzera kwemutengo mangwanani, chaiyo yekutengeserana masikati yakanga isina simba, nemutengo wekutengesa mutengo wakaiswa pakati pe9200 kusvika ku9250 yuan / ton (kusanganisira mutero).
3.Limited supply side shanduko
Zvinoenderana nekuverenga kwekutevera kweazvino emumba phenol ketone chirimwa basa, zvinotarisirwa kuti mudzimba phenol kugadzirwa munaGunyana ichave ingangoita 355400 matani, inotarisirwa kuderera ne1.69% zvichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura.Tichifunga kuti zuva rechisikigo munaAugust richava rimwe zuva kupfuura September, zvachose, kuchinja kwehupfumi hwepamba kunogumira.Chinonyanya kutariswa nevashandisi chichava pane shanduko mune port inventory.

4.Demand side purofiti yanetsa
Vhiki rapfuura, pakanga paine vatengi vakakura vebisphenol A uye phenolic resin restocking uye kutenga mumusika, uye neChishanu chapfuura, pakanga paine hutsva hwekugadzira hwephenolic ketone kutenga zvinhu zvekuyedza pamusika.Mitengo yePhenol yakakwira, asi kudzika kwakadzika hakuna kutevera zvizere kukwira.Chirimwa che240000 ton bisphenol A chirimwa mudunhu reZhejiang chakatangwazve kupera kwesvondo, uye kuchengetedzwa kwe150000 ton bisphenol A chirimwa muNantong kwakatanga zvekare.Mutengo wemusika webisphenol A unoramba uri padanho rakatorwa re11750-11800 yuan/ton.Pakati pekukwira kwakasimba kwemitengo ye phenol uye acetone, purofiti yebisphenol A indasitiri yakamedzwa nekukwira kwephenol.
5.Profitability yePhenol Ketone Factory
Kubatsira kwefekitori ye phenol ketone kwave nani svondo rino.Nekuda kwemitengo yakagadzikana ye pure benzene uye propylene, mutengo unoramba usina kuchinjika, uye mutengo wekutengesa wakawedzera.Pundutso patani yezvigadzirwa zve phenolic ketone yakakwira se738 yuan.

6.Future maonero
Kune ramangwana, musika unoramba uine tariro nezve phenol.Kunyangwe panogona kuve nekubatanidzwa uye kururamisa munguva pfupi, maitiro ese achiri kumusoro.Kutariswa kwekutarisa kwemusika kunosanganisira kukanganisa kweHangzhou Asian Mitambo yekufambisa kwephenol mumusika, pamwe nekuti iyo wave yekuisa kumusoro ichasvika riini zororo rechigumi nerimwe risati rasvika.Zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo wekutumira we phenol kuEast China Port uchave pakati pe9200-9650 yuan/ton vhiki ino.