Muna 2022, mutengo wemafuta epasi rose wakakwira zvakanyanya, mutengo wegasi rechisikigo muEurope neUnited States wakakwira zvakanyanya, kupokana pakati pekupa marasha uye kudiwa kwakawedzera, uye dambudziko remagetsi rakawedzera.Nekuitika kunodzokororwa kwezviitiko zvehutano hwepamba, musika wemakemikari wakapinda mumamiriro ekumanikidzwa kaviri kwekugovera uye kudiwa.

Kupinda muna 2023, mikana nematambudziko zvinogara, kubva mukukurudzira kudiwa kwemba kuburikidza neakasiyana marongero kusvika pakuvhura zvizere kutonga.
Mune runyorwa rwemitengo yezvinhu muhafu yekutanga yaNdira 2023, pakanga paine makumi mana nematatu ezvigadzirwa muchikamu chemakemikari zvakasimuka pamwedzi-pa-mwedzi, kusanganisira zvinhu zvishanu zvakakwira kupfuura gumi muzana, zvichiverengera 4.6% yevakatariswa. zvigadzirwa muindasitiri;Zvinhu zvitatu zvepamusoro zveMIBK (18.7%), propane (17.1%), 1,4-butanediol (11.8%).Pane zvinhu makumi mana nezvishanu zvakadzikira mwedzi nemwedzi, uye 6 zvinhu zvakadzikira zvinodarika gumi kubva muzana, zvichitora 5,6% yehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotariswa muchikamu ichi;Zvigadzirwa zvitatu zvepamusoro mukuderera zvaive polysilicon (- 32.4%), marasha tar (yakakwirira tembiricha) (- 16.7%) uye acetone (- 13.2%).Ivhareji yekukwira nekudonha kwepakati yaive - 0.1%.
Wedzera rondedzero (wedzera kupfuura 5%)

MIBK mutengo wakawedzera ne18.7%
Mushure meZuva reGore Idzva, musika weMIBK wakakanganiswa netarisiro yakasimba.Avhareji yemutengo wenyika yakakwira kubva pa14766 yuan/ton muna Ndira 2 kusvika 17533 yuan/ton musi wa13 Ndira.
1. Chigadzirwa chacho chinotarisirwa kuva chakasimba, 50000 toni / gore yemidziyo mikuru ichavharwa, uye chiyero chekushanda kwepamba chichadonha kubva ku80% kusvika ku40%.Kupiwa kwenguva pfupi kunotarisirwa kuve kwakaoma, izvo zvakaoma kuchinja.
2. Mushure meZuva reGore Idzva, iyo huru yekudzika kweiyo antioxidant indasitiri kuzadzazve, uye mafekitori ezasi anozadzawo mushure menguva yezvidiki.Sezvo zororo rinosvika, kudiwa kwepasi kwemirairo midiki kunodzikira, uye kuramba kune-mutengo wepamusoro wezvigadzirwa zviri pachena.Nekupa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, mutengo wakasvika zvishoma nezvishoma uye kukwira kwakaderera.

Propane mutengo wakawedzera ne17.1%
Muna 2023, musika wepropane wakatanga zvakanaka, uye mutengo wepakati weShandong propane musika wakakwira kubva pa5082 yuan/ton pa2nd kusvika 5920 yuan/ton musi wa14, neavhareji mutengo we6000 yuan/ton musi wa11.
1. Mukutanga kwekutanga, mutengo mumusika wekuchamhembe wakanga wakaderera, kudiwa kwepasi kwemvura kwakanga kwakadzikama, uye bhizinesi rakaderedzwa.Mushure memutambo, rwizi rwezasi rwakatanga kuzadzazve zvinhu zvishoma nezvishoma, nepo zvekumusoro kwerwizi zvaive zvakaderera.Panguva imwecheteyo, vhoriyamu ichangobva kusvika pachiteshi yakaderera, musika wekutengesa unoderedzwa, uye mutengo wepropane unotanga kukwira zvakasimba.
2. Imwe PDH yakatangazve basa uye kudiwa kweindasitiri yemakemikari kwakawedzera zvakanyanya.Nerutsigiro rwunongodiwa, mitengo yepropane iri nyore kukwira uye yakaoma kudonha.Mushure mezororo, mutengo wepropane wakasimuka, uchiratidza chiitiko chesimba kuchamhembe uye chisina simba kumaodzanyemba.Mukutanga nhanho, iyo arbitrage yekutumira kunze kwezvinhu yakaderera-yekupedzisira zvinhu mumusika wekuchamhembe zvakanyatso kudzikisa hesita.Nekuda kwemutengo wepamusoro, zvinhu zviri mumusika wekumaodzanyemba hazvina kutsvedza, uye mitengo yakagadziridzwa imwe neimwe.Sezvo zororo rinosvika, mamwe mafekitori anopinda mumhando yezororo, uye vashandi vanotama zvishoma nezvishoma vanodzokera kumba.
1.4-Butanediol mutengo wakawedzera ne11.8%
Mushure memutambo, mutengo wekutengesa wemhizha wakasimuka zvakanyanya, uye mutengo we1.4-butanediol wakasimuka kubva ku9780 yuan / ton pa2 kusvika ku10930 yuan / ton pa13.
1. Mabhizinesi ekugadzira haadi kutengesa musika wenzvimbo.Panguva imwecheteyo, iyo nzvimbo yekutengesa uye yakakwirira mabhidhiri ekutengesa kwemafekitori makuru anosimudzira iyo musika kutarisa kusimuka.Pamusoro pekupaka uye kugadzirisa kwechikamu chekutanga cheTokyo Biotech, mutoro weindasitiri wakadzikira zvishoma, uye mabhizinesi ekugadzira anoenderera mberi nekuendesa maodha ekondirakiti.BDO danho rekupa zviri pachena rakanaka.
2. Nekuwedzera kwekutangazve mutoro weBASF zvishandiso muShanghai, kudiwa kwePTMEG indasitiri kwakawedzera, nepo mamwe maindasitiri epasi ane shanduko shoma, uye kudiwa kuri nani zvishoma.Zvisinei, sezvo zororo rinosvika, dzimwe nzvimbo dzepakati nepakati dzinopinda munzvimbo yezororo nguva isati yasvika, uye huwandu hwekutengesa kwemusika hushoma.
Drop list (pasi pe5%)

Acetone yakaderera ne-13.2%
Musika wemumba weacetone wakadonha zvakanyanya, uye mutengo wemafekitori eEast China wakadzikira kubva pa550 yuan/ton kusvika pa4820 yuan/ton.
1. Nhamba yekushanda yeacetone yakanga iri pedyo ne85%, uye nhamba yechiteshi yakasimuka kusvika ku32000 toni pa9, ichikwira nokukurumidza, uye kudzvinyirira kwekupa kwakawedzera.Pasi pedzvinyiriro yezvigadzirwa zvefekitari, mubati ane fariro huru yokutumira.Nekugadzirwa kwakatsetseka kweShenghong Refining uye Chemical Phenol Ketone Plant, kudzvanywa kwekupa kunotarisirwa kuwedzera.
2. Kutenga kwakadzika kweacetone kune husimbe.Kunyange zvazvo misika yeMIBK yakadzika yakasimuka zvakanyanya, kudiwa kwakanga kusina kukwana kuderedza chiyero chekushanda kusvika pasi.Kutora chikamu kwepakati kwakaderera.Vakadonha zvakanyanya apo kutengeserana kwemusika kwakafuratirwa.Nekuderera kwemusika, kurasikirwa kwekumanikidzwa kwephenolic ketone mabhizinesi kunowedzera.Mafekitari mazhinji anomirira kuti musika uve pachena usati watenga mushure mezororo.Pasi pekumanikidzwa kwepurofiti, mushumo wemusika wakamira kudonha uye wakasimuka.Musika wacho zvishoma nezvishoma wakajeka mushure mezororo.
Aftermarket analysis
Kubva pakuona kwepamusoro pemafuta asina kuchena, dutu rechando richangopfuura rakarova United States, uye mafuta asina kuchena anotarisirwa kuva nemigumisiro yakaderera, uye mari yekutsigira zvigadzirwa zvepetrochemical ichave isina simba.Mukufamba kwenguva, musika wemafuta haungotarisana chete nekumanikidzwa kukuru uye kuderera kwehupfumi kutenderera, asi zvakare wakatarisana nemutambo pakati pekupa uye kudiwa.Padivi rekupa, pane njodzi yekuti kugadzirwa kweRussia kuchaderera.OEPC + kuderedzwa kwekugadzira kuchatsigira pasi.Panyaya yekuda, inotsigirwa ne macro-cycle inhibition, husimbe hwekuda inhibition muEurope uye inoda kukura muAsia.Kukanganiswa ne macro uye micro akareba uye mapfupi zvinzvimbo, musika wemafuta unogona kuramba uchiita kusagadzikana.
Kubva pamaonero evatengi, marongero ehupfumi hwepamba anoteedzera kutenderera kukuru kwepamba uye kuita basa rakanaka rekutenderera kwepasirese uye repamba kaviri.Munguva yedenda, yakasunungurwa zvizere, asi chokwadi chisingadzivisiki chaiva chokuti sangano rakanga richiri risina simba uye manzwiro ekumirira-uye-kuona akawedzera mushure mekurwadziwa.Panyaya yematerminals, mitemo yekutonga yemumba yakagadziridzwa, uye zvinhu uye kuvimba kwevatengi zvakadzoserwa.Nekudaro, zviteshi zvenguva pfupi zvinoda iyo off-mwaka weChirimo Mutambo, uye zvingave zvakaoma kuve nekutendeuka kwakakosha munguva yekudzoreredza.
Muna 2023, hupfumi hweChina huchasimuka zvishoma nezvishoma, asi takatarisana nekuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika pamwe nekuwedzera kuri kutarisirwa kuderera kwehupfumi muEurope neUnited States, musika weChina wezvigadzirwa zvakawanda ucharamba uchitarisana nematambudziko.Muna 2023, huwandu hwekugadzira makemikari hucharamba huchikura zvishoma nezvishoma.Mugore rapfuura, kugadzirwa kwemakemikari emumba kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, ne80% yezvigadzirwa zvemakemikari makuru zvichiratidza maitiro ekukura uye chete 5% yehuwandu hwekugadzira huri kudzikira.Mune ramangwana, inotungamirwa nekutsigira michina uye purofiti cheni, kugadzirwa kwemakemikari kucharamba kuchikura, uye makwikwi emusika anogona kuwedzera.Mabhizinesi akaoma kuumba maindasitiri echeni mabhenefiti mune ramangwana achasangana nepurofiti kana kudzvanywa, asi zvakare anobvisa kumashure kwekugadzira kugona.Muna 2023, mamwe mabhizinesi makuru uye epakati-kati anozotarisa mukukura kwemaindasitiri epasi.Nekuenderera mberi kuri kuitika muhunyanzvi hwepamba, kuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza, yakakwirira-yekupedzisira zvinhu zvitsva, electrolytes uye mhepo indasitiri indasitiri cheni zviri kuwedzera kukosheswa nemabhizinesi makuru.Pasi pekumashure kwekabhoni kaviri, mabhizinesi ekumashure anobviswa nekukurumidza.