1,Market Overview

Munguva pfupi yapfuura, mushure memwedzi inenge miviri yekuderera kunoramba kuripo, kuderera kwemusika wepamba acrylonitrile kwakaderera zvishoma nezvishoma. Sezvo waJune 25th, wepambamutengo wemusika weacrylonitrileyakaramba yakagadzikana pa9233 yuan/ton. Kudzikira kwekutanga kwemitengo yemusika kwainyanya kukonzerwa nekupokana kuri pakati pekuwedzera kwekupa uye kushaikwa kwakaderera. Zvisinei, nekuchengetedzwa kwezvimwe zvigadziri uye kuwedzera kwemari inoshandiswa, vagadziri ve acrylonitrile vakatanga kuratidza chido chakasimba chekusimudzira mitengo, uye pane zviratidzo zvekugadzikana kwemusika.

2,Kuongorora kwemari

Iyo ichangoburwa yakakwira kuvhurika maitiro mumusika wakagadzirwa propylene yakapa rutsigiro rwakasimba rwemutengo weacrylonitrile. Kupinda munaJune, mamwe ekunze ePDH propylene units akawana nguva nenguva gadziriso inotungamira kushomeka kwenzvimbo, izvo zvakazokwidza mitengo yepropylene. Parizvino, mutengo wepropylene mumusika weShandong wasvika 7178 yuan/ton. Kune mafekitori eacrylonitrile anoburitsa zvinhu zvakabikwa, mutengo wepropylene raw materials wakawedzera nemazana mana eyuan/ton. Zvichakadaro, nekuda kwekuramba kuderera kwemitengo yeacrylonitrile, kugadzira purofiti yakaderera zvakanyanya, uye zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvakatoratidza kurasikirwa kuita nyika. Iko kuwedzera kwemitengo yekumanikidza kwakasimbisa kuda kwevagadziri veacrylonitrile kuti vapinde mumusika, uye chiyero chekushandiswa kweindasitiri hachina kuvandudzwa. Mimwe michina yakatanga kushanda pasi pemutoro wakaderedzwa.

3,Supply side analysis

Panyaya yekupihwa, kugadziridzwa kwemazuva ano kwemamwe maturusi kwakadzoreredza kudzvanywa kwemusika. Musi waChikumi 6, iyo 260000 ton acrylonitrile unit muKorul yakavharwa kuti igadziriswe sezvakarongwa. Musi waChikumi 18, 260000 ton acrylonitrile unit muSelbang yakavharwawo kuti igadziriswe. Aya matanho ekugadzirisa akadzikisa zvakare huwandu hwekushandisa kweiyo acrylonitrile indasitiri kusvika pasi pe80%, parizvino yakatenderedza 78%. Kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kwakanyatso kudzikisa kudzvinyirira kwekuwandisa kweacrylonitrile, kuita kuti fekitori yefekitari idzoreke uye ichipa vanogadzira nekurudziro yekukwidza mitengo.

4,Dema side analysis

Kubva pakuona kwemisika yevatengi yakadzika, kudiwa kuchiri kushomeka pari zvino. Kunyange zvazvo kushandiswa kwepamba kweacrylonitrile kwakawedzera kubva munaJune, uye kushandiswa kwepasi kwakawedzerawo mwedzi pamwedzi, chiyero chekushanda chese chichiri padanho rakaderera, nerutsigiro rushoma rwemitengo yeacrylonitrile. Kunyanya mushure mekupinda mu-off-season, maitiro ekukura kwekushandisa angave akaoma kuenderera mberi uye kuratidza zviratidzo zvekushaya simba. Tichitora midziyo yeABS semuenzaniso, avhareji yekushanda kwemidziyo yeABS muChina nguva pfupi yadarika yaive 68.80%, mwedzi pamwedzi yakadzikira ne0.24%, uye gore negore kudzikira kwe8.24%. Pakazere, iyo kudiwa kweacrylonitrile inoramba isina simba, uye musika hauna kukwana uye kunoshanda rebound simba.

5,Market Outlook

Pakazere, musika wepamba wepropylene unochengetedza yakakwira yekushanda maitiro munguva pfupi, uye mutengo wekutsigira uchiripo. Muhafu yekupedzisira yegore, varidzi vebhizinesi vazhinji vanozoona mamiriro ekugadzirisa emafekitori makuru eacrylonitrile, uye kutenga-panzvimbo kunozonyanya kuchengetedza kudiwa kwakasimba. Mukushaikwa kwemashoko akajeka ekusimudzira, nzvimbo yekutengesa yemusika weacrylonitrile inotarisirwa kuramba yakagadzikana. Zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo mukuru wekutaurirana wekuzvitora wega emagaba kubva kuEast China ports uchachinja-chinja 9200-9500 yuan/ton. Nekudaro, tichifunga nezve kushomeka kwepasi pemvura kudiwa uye kudzvanywa kwekupa, kuchine zvinhu zvisina chokwadi mumusika, uye zvinodikanwa kunyatso tarisisa mashandiro eindasitiri uye shanduko mukudiwa kwemusika.