1, Kuchinja kwemutengo wemusika uye maitiro

Muchikamu chechitatu cha2024, musika wepamusha webisphenol A wakasangana nekushanduka-shanduka mukati meiyo renji, uye pakupedzisira wakaratidza bhizari maitiro. Avhareji yemutengo wemusika wekota iyi yaive 9889 yuan/ton, kuwedzera kwe1.93% zvichienzaniswa nekota yapfuura, inosvika 187 yuan/ton. Kuchinja uku kunonyanya kukonzerwa nekushaikwa kwesimba panguva yechinyakare-yemwaka (Chikunguru naNyamavhuvhu), pamwe nekuwedzera nguva nenguva kuvharika uye kugadzirisa muindasitiri yepasi pepoxy resin, zvichikonzera kushomeka kwemusika uye vagadziri vakatarisana nematambudziko mukutakura. Pasinei nemitengo yakakwira, kurasikirwa kweindasitiri kwakawedzera, uye pane nzvimbo shoma yekuti vatengesi vatengeserwe. Mitengo yemusika inowanzochinja mukati me9800-10000 yuan/ton muEast China. Kupinda mu "Golden Nine", kuderedzwa kwekugadzirisa uye kuwedzera kwekupa kwakawedzera kuwedzera mamiriro ekutengesa mumusika. Pasinei nerutsigiro rwemutengo, mutengo webisphenol A uchiri kunetsa kudzikamisa, uye chiitiko cheusimbe peak mwaka chiri pachena.

Mutengo wemusika webisphenol A

 

2、 Kuwedzera kwesimba uye kukura kwekubuda

Muchikamu chechitatu, huwandu hwekugadzira mudzimba hwebisphenol A hwakasvika 5.835 miriyoni matani, kuwedzera kwe240000 matani kana zvichienzaniswa nekota yechipiri, kunyanya kubva mukumisikidzwa kweHuizhou Phase II chirimwa kumaodzanyemba kweChina. Panyaya yekugadzirwa, yakabuda muchikamu chechitatu yaive 971900 matani, kuwedzera kwe7.12% zvichienzaniswa nekota yapfuura, inosvika 64600 matani. Kukura uku kunonzi kunokonzerwa neaviri mhedzisiro yemidziyo mitsva iri kuiswa mukushanda uye kuderedzwa kwekugadziriswa kwemidziyo, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kunoramba kuchiwedzera mukugadzirwa kwebisphenol A.

Monthly Production Shanduko yeBisphenol A muChina kubva munaNdira kusvika Gunyana 2024

3, Maindasitiri epasi ari kutanga kuwedzera kugadzirwa

Kunyangwe pasina hutsva hwekugadzira huwandu hwakaiswa mukushanda muchikamu chechitatu, mitoro yekushanda yePC yakadzika uye epoxy resin maindasitiri yakawedzera. Ivhareji yekushanda mutoro wePC industry ndeye 78.47%, kuwedzera kwe3.59% kana ichienzaniswa nenguva yapfuura; Avhareji yekushanda mutoro we epoxy resin indasitiri ndeye 53.95%, kuwedzera kwe3.91% mwedzi pamwedzi. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti kudiwa kwebisphenol A mumaindasitiri maviri ezasi kwakawedzera, zvichipa humwe tsigiro yemitengo yemusika.

Zviripachena kushandiswa kwebisphenol A (pamwedzi) (ton)

 

4, Kuwedzera mutengo kumanikidzwa uye indasitiri kurasikirwa

Muchikamu chechitatu, theoretical avhareji mutengo webisphenol A indasitiri yakawedzera kusvika pa11078 yuan/tani, mwedzi pamwedzi kuwedzera kwe3.44%, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yephenol. Nekudaro, iyo indasitiri yepakati purofiti yadzika kusvika -1138 yuan/ton, kudzikira kwe7.88% zvichienzaniswa nenguva yapfuura, zvichiratidza kuomeswa kwemitengo muindasitiri uye kuwedzera kuderera kwemamiriro ekurasikirwa. Kunyangwe kudzikira kwemutengo wezvakagadzirwa acetone kwakadzikiswa, mutengo wakazara hausati wakonzera purofiti yeindasitiri.

Theoretical mutengo wakakura purofiti maitiro chati yebisphenol A indasitiri kubva 2023 kusvika 2024

 

5, Kufanotaura kwemusika kwekota yechina

1) Maonero emutengo

Zvinotarisirwa kuti muchikamu chechina, pachava nekugadzirisa kushoma kwe fenol ketone fekitori, uye pamwe nekuuya kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika pachiteshi, kugoverwa kwe phenol mumusika kuchawedzera, uye pane mukana wekuderera kwemutengo. . Musika weacetone, kune rumwe rutivi, unotarisirwa kuwana yakaderera gadziriso mumutengo nekuda kwekuwanda kwekupa. Shanduko mukupihwa kwe phenolic ketones dzichatonga maitiro emusika uye kuita kumwe kudzvanywa pamutengo webisphenol A.

2) Supply side forecast

Kune mashoma mashoma ekugadzirisa zvirongwa zvemumba bisphenol A zvinomera muchikamu chechina, paine mashoma mashoma ekugadzirisa gadziriro munzvimbo dzeChangshu neNingbo. Panguva imwecheteyo, pane zvinotarisirwa kuburitswa kwesimba idzva rekugadzira mudunhu reShandong, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti kupihwa kwebisphenol A kucharamba kuchiwanda muchikamu chechina.

3) Tarisa padivi rekuda

Mabasa ekuchengetedza mumaindasitiri epasi akadzikira, asi iyo epoxy resin indasitiri inokanganiswa nekupa uye kudiwa kupokana, uye kugadzirwa kunotarisirwa kuramba kuri kwakaderera. Kunyangwe paine zvinotarisirwa kuti michina mitsva ishandiswe muPC indasitiri, kutarisisa kunofanirwa kubhadharwa kune chaiyo kufambira mberi kwekugadzira uye kukanganisa kwezvirongwa zvekuchengetedza pamutoro wekushanda. Pakazara, kudiwa kwepasi hakugone kuwana kukura kwakakosha mukota yechina.

Zvichienderana nekuongorora kwakadzama kwemutengo, kugovera, uye kudiwa, zvinotarisirwa kuti musika webisphenol A ushande zvisina simba muchikamu chechina. Rutsigiro rwemutengo rwakaderera, tarisiro yekugovera yakawedzera, uye kudiwa kwepasi kwakaoma kuvandudza zvakanyanya. Mamiriro ekurasikirwa kweindasitiri anogona kuenderera kana kutowedzera. Naizvozvo, zvinodikanwa kunyatso tarisisa zvisina kurongeka kudzikiswa kwemutoro uye mashandiro ekugadzirisa mukati meindastiri kuti utarise njodzi dzinogona kuitika pamusika.


Nguva yekutumira: Sep-26-2024