1,Market Overview uye Price Trends

Muhafu yekutanga ya2024, musika wepamusha weMMA wakasangana nemamiriro akaomarara ekupa uye kuderera kwemitengo. Padivi rekupa, kuvharika kwezvishandiso nguva zhinji uye kudonhedza mashandiro kwakonzera kuderera kwekushanda muindasitiri, ukuwo kuvharika kwemidziyo yepasirese uye kugadzirisa kwakawedzera kushomeka kwekuwanikwa kwemba kweMMA nzvimbo. Padivi rekuda, kunyangwe basa rekushanda remaindasitiri akadai sePMMA neACR rachinja, kukura kwemusika wese kuri kushoma. Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, mitengo yeMMA yakaratidza kukwira kwakakosha. Kubva munaJune 14, mutengo wemusika wakawedzera ne 1651 yuan / ton zvichienzaniswa nekutanga kwegore, nekuwedzera kwe13.03%.

2,Supply analysis

Muhafu yekutanga ya2024, kugadzirwa kweMMA kweChina kwakawedzera zvakanyanya zvichienzaniswa nenguva yakafanana gore rapfuura. Zvisinei nekugaro gadziriswa mabasa, iyo 335000 ton unit yakaiswa mukushanda gore rapfuura uye 150000 ton unit yakawedzera muChongqing zvishoma nezvishoma yakatangazve kushanda kwakadzikama, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwekugadzira. Zvichakadaro, kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa muChongqing kwakawedzera kupihwa kweMMA, ichipa rutsigiro rwakasimba kumusika.

3,Zvinodiwa kuongorora

Panyaya yekuda kwakadzika, PMMA uye acrylic lotion ndiyo mikuru yekushandisa minda yeMMA. Muhafu yekutanga ya2024, avhareji yekutanga mutoro wePMMA indasitiri ichaderera zvishoma, nepo avhareji yekutanga mutoro we acrylic lotion indasitiri ichawedzera. Iko kushanduka kweasynchronous pakati pezviviri izvi kwakonzera kushomeka kwekuvandudzwa kweMMA kudiwa. Nekudaro, nekudzoreredza zvishoma nezvishoma kwehupfumi uye kusimba kwakadzikama kwemaindasitiri epasi, zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa kweMMA kuchachengetedza kukura kwakadzikama.

4,Kuongorora purofiti yemutengo

Panyaya yemutengo uye purofiti, MMA inogadzirwa neC4 process uye ACH maitiro yakaratidza maitiro ekuderera kwemutengo uye gross purofiti kuwedzera muhafu yekutanga yegore. Pakati pavo, avhareji mari yekugadzira yeC4 nzira yeMMA yakadzikira zvishoma, nepo avhareji purofiti yakawedzera zvakanyanya ne121.11% gore-pagore. Kunyangwe avhareji mutengo wekugadzira weACH nzira yeMMA yakawedzera, avhareji purofiti yakawedzerawo zvakanyanya ne424.17% gore-pagore. Shanduko iyi inonyanya kukonzerwa nekuwedzera kwakakura kwemitengo yeMMA uye kubvumidzwa kwemitengo kushoma.

5,Kupinza uye kunze kwekuongorora

Panyaya yezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kunze kwenyika, muhafu yekutanga ya2024, nhamba yeMMA inotengeswa muChina yakadzikira ne25.22% gore negore, nepo huwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika hwakawedzera ne72.49% gore negore, kanokwana kana nhamba yezvinotengwa kunze kwenyika. Shanduko iyi inonyanya kukonzerwa nekuwedzera kwekupa mudzimba uye kushomeka kweMMA nzvimbo mumusika wepasi rose. Vagadziri veChinese vakatora mukana wekuwedzera vhoriyamu yavo yekutengesa kunze kwenyika uye nekuwedzera kuwedzera kugovera kweMMA kunze kwenyika.

6,Tarisiro yeramangwana

Raw zvinhu: Mumusika weacetone, kutarisisa kwakanyanya kunoda kubhadharwa kune yekuuya kwekuuya mamiriro muhafu yechipiri yegore. Muhafu yekutanga yegore, huwandu hwekupinza kweacetone hwaive hudiki, uye nekuda kwemamiriro ezvinhu asingatarisirwi mumidziyo yekune dzimwe nyika uye nzira, huwandu hwekusvika muChina hwakanga husina kukwirira. Nokudaro, kuchenjerera kunofanira kutorwa pamusoro pekuuya kwakanyanyisa kweacetone muhafu yepiri yegore, iyo inogona kuva nemigumisiro yakasiyana pamusika. Panguva imwecheteyo, mashandiro echigadzirwa cheMIBK neMMA anodawo kunyatsotariswa. Kubatsira kwemakambani ese ari maviri kwaive kwakanaka muhafu yekutanga yegore, asi kana vachikwanisa kuenderera kunobata zvakananga kukosha kweacetone. Zvinotarisirwa kuti avhareji yemusika mutengo weacetone muhafu yechipiri yegore inogona kuramba iri pakati pe7500-9000 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side: Tichitarisa kumberi kwehafu yechipiri yegore, pachave nezvikamu zviviri zvitsva zvinoiswa mukushanda mumusika weMMA wepamba, zvinoti C2 nzira 50000 tons/gore MMA unit yerimwe bhizinesi muPanjin, Liaoning uye ACH nzira 100000 matani / gore MMA unit yeimwe bhizinesi muFujian, iyo ichawedzera iyo MMA kugadzirwa kwehuwandu nehuwandu hwe 150000 matani. Nekudaro, kubva pakuona kwekudzika kwemvura, kuchinjika kunotarisirwa hakuna kukosha, uye chiyero chekukura kwesimba padivi rezvinodiwa chiri kunonoka zvichienzaniswa nekukura kwekupa kweMMA.

Mutengo wemaitiro: Tichifunga nezvezvinhu zvakasvibirira, kugovera uye kudiwa, pamwe chete nemamiriro emisika yemumba uye yepasi rose, zvinotarisirwa kuti mukana wemitengo yeMMA inoramba ichikwira zvakanyanya muhafu yechipiri yegore haisi yakakwirira. Kusiyana neizvi, sezvo kupa kunowedzera uye kudiwa kunoramba kuine kugadzikana, mitengo inogona kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma kudzokera kune inonzwisisika siyana yekuchinja. Zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo weMMA mumusika weEast China muChina uchava pakati pe12000 kusvika 14000 yuan/ton muhafu yechipiri yegore.

Pakazere, kunyangwe musika weMMA wakatarisana nezvimwe zvinomanikidza zvekushandisa, kukura kwakasimba kwekudiwa kwepasi uye kubatana pakati pemisika yemumba neyekunze kunopa rutsigiro rwakasimba kwairi.